Macedonia has received UN peace operations, and has also participated in non-UN peace operations. With regards to UN affairs, Macedonia has received the UN Preventive Deployment Force (UNPREDEP) (UN 2000c, par. 1). It was established on March 1995 to replace the UN Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in Macedonia (Ibid.). With regards to non-UN peace operations, “Macedonia participates in ISAF in Afghanistan” and also to the “USA-led Iraqi peacekeeping mission” (BBC-MIR 2006b, par. 1; MIA 2003, par. 1).
Initial variables of the data collection process:
UN/UN peacekeeping policy reform
No record.
Perception of peacekeeping
Perception is positive. Macedonian parliament with 62 votes "for", four "restrained" (abstentions) and five "against" adopted a decision on November 28, 2003 on sending Macedonian Army units to the Iraqi peacekeeping mission (MIA 2003, par. 1). During an interview, the reporter Igor Ilievski asked Defence Minister Jovan Manasievski:
This year also envisages an increase in the [Army of the Republic of Macedonia] ARM’s participation in missions abroad. What are the new engagements of the Macedonian soldiers. To date, we have constantly had 55 soldiers engaged in missions abroad. This year, and especially during the second half of this year, we will have 95, or even more than double the figure of 55. The plan is to maintain the number of soldiers in the mission to Iraq at around 40. Based on the government’s decision of last week, we will send an additional 11 officers and non-commissioned officers to Afghanistan, as headquarters staff for the Southeastern Europe Multinational Peacekeeping Brigade Command. We will continue to participate in the ISAF forces and in the medical team of the Adriatic Group in Afghanistan. In the second half of this year, there will be another event concerning missions abroad: two transport helicopters with their crews, around 16 people, will be sent to B[iH]. (BBC-MIR 2006b, par. 2)
Ethnic divisions dominate politics and parties are divided along ethnic and to some extent ideological lines (EIU 2006ab, 12). Nevertheless, it was not a problem for sending troops to the peace operation missions. With regards to the divided politics, “following the parliamentary election of July 2006 the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party of Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) controversially decided not to invite the largest ethnic Albanian party—the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI)—into the new ruling coalition” (EIU 2006by, 1). This was the result of the ethnic conflict. However, “there is enough support for implementing the Ohrid peace agreement, as well as international pressure, to prevent frustrations from spilling over into violent confrontation between DUI supporters and those of the government” (Ibid.). Cross-party backing for reform could suffer if the timetable for starting EU accession talks is allowed to drift (Ibid.).
Domestic economic environment
Macedonia’s three-year IMF stand-by arrangement, along with its World Bank commitments, will set the economic policy framework for the remainder of the forecast period (Ibid., 3). The IMF and World Bank agreements require the authorities to push through structural reforms of the labor market and the judiciary, and to improve the functioning of public institutions (Ibid.).
Military affairs
The authorities have estimated that there are some 600,000 unregistered weapons in the country (EIU 2006ab, 17). This represents a significant potential threat to security and stability, and the UN backed weapons amnesty in 2003 had little effect (Ibid.). The Albanian National Army (ANA), which launched a series of attacks on Macedonian security forces and institutions in mid-2003, appears to be too weak to do more than launch sporadic attacks (Ibid.). The following table shows the military balance for 2005.
Foreign policy
The European Commission and many EU member states saw the granting of candidate status to Macedonia in December 2005 as a way of reinforcing political stability in the country where there is widespread support for EU membership among both main ethnic groups and in the wider region (EIU 2006by, 2). The foreign policy priority is to secure a starting date for EU accession talks (Ibid.).
Additional variables found after the preliminary analysis:
Climate changes
No record.
Independent negotiations taken by DPKO to seek troops
No record.
Independent negotiations taken by contributor countries
US President George W. Bush extended gratitude to Macedonia for its participation in the US-led antiterrorist coalition, as well as for the contribution of its soldiers to peacekeeping missions in Iraq and Afghanistan (MIA 2005, par. 1).
Meetings organized by other international organizations to engage in dialogue about peacekeeping
The timetable for NATO accession remains uncertain (EIU 2006ab, 16). In May 2000 Macedonia was one of a group of east European states (the "Vilnius nine", since joined by Croatia) that agreed to set rivalries aside and work together to join NATO in one "big bang" expansion (Ibid.).
"Will Macedonia be prepared to train a bigger combat unit to participate in UN or NATO sponsored international missions?" (BBC-MIR 2006a, par. 1). This is just one of the partnership objectives (requests) that NATO has sent to the Defence Ministry after the New Year and to which Macedonia is expected to reply soon (Ibid.).However, after extending invitations to seven east European states (not including Macedonia) at its Prague summit in November 2002, NATO announced that further expansion would have to wait for the time being. Macedonia continues to co-ordinate its NATO-related activities with Albania and Croatia, with US support, and the Macedonian authorities are pushing ahead with reforms of the military in the hope of obtaining a membership invitation in the next couple of years. In late 2005 the alliance announced that its next round of expansion would not occur until 2008. NATO will place a strong emphasis on political stability, and will therefore look closely at the conduct of the 2006 parliamentary election, as well as the impact on Macedonia of a status deal in Kosovo in deciding whether Macedonia qualifies for membership. (Ibid., 16-17)
However, “the latest request from NATO envisages the expenditure of tremendous finances, because in future, each country will be in charge of funding its own contingents deployed in the missions” (Ibid., par. 3). On the other hand, “many issues from the realm of NATO integration will depend on Macedonia’s answer” (Ibid.). Participating in peace operations has a cost. In the case of Macedonia, “the initial estimates show that around 50 million euros will be needed to fully set up the unit” (Ibid.). This will present additional challenges for Macedonia. On the other hand, a senior Defence Ministry official has assessed that such requests from NATO may bring Macedonia closer to achieving NATO standards, because in this way, the country would de facto act as a full-fledged member without a formal membership decision in place (Ibid., par. 5).The first trial, or simulation, of the ARM’s capabilities will probably take place as early as next week, when the NATO inspection team is due to arrive in Macedonia. As far as we have learned unofficially, NATO has requested that in future (by 2013), Macedonia should demonstrate a capacity to form, equip and train "a combat battalion" of around 1,000 troops, who would be capable of being deployed under NATO command and serve as a rapid reaction force at any time. The request is sensitive and consultations are currently being held at the most senior level. Namely, we are being asked to provide a large military formation, rather than just a squad or platoon, as was previously the case. (Ibid., par. 2)
